Current Stock of Properties
Source: Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors
The story that the statistics above do not tell is that the banks have a significant shadow inventory and they are rolling properties out at a controlled pace to avoid further price depreciation. One example is Bank of America, which is planning to unload approximately 6,000 foreclosed properties to the Nevada real estate market in 2010, with most of these in Las Vegas. Estimates on how much shadow inventory is out there varies, with First American CoreLogic estimating there to be 1.7 million properties nationwide, and Amherst Securities estimating 7 million. Wherever you come out at within this range it is fair to assume that Las Vegas has a disproportionately large percentage of the nation’s shadow inventory. John Burns Real Estate Consulting Inc. estimates that Las Vegas has a shadow inventory that is equivalent to 18 months of sales.
There is strong investor demand for the shadow inventory as it comes online so if it is dripped into the market we do not expect it to depress prices further. The threats to this would be if interest rates increased from moderate rates, or unemployment increases further. Despite the shadow inventory you can see from the below that new listings are controlled. If banks were to change their artificial supply this would be a further threat to pricing.
Of the 20,262 Single Family Homes listed for sale in February 2012, 7,974 have no contingent or pending offers, and 4,087 are new listings. There were 2,390 units sold in February at a total dollar value of $402.4 million. Of these sold units, 46.6% sold in under 30 days, 18.7% in under 60 days, 12.3% in under 90 days, 6.9% in under 120 days, and 15.5% in over 121 days. The total value of homes sold is 6.3% down on January 2010, and 4.5% down on February 2009. The average price of units sold is 2.2% up on January 2010, and 8.6% down on February 2009.
New Listings
Source: Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors
Of the 5,495 Condo/Townhouse Units listed for sale in February 2012, 2,255 have no contingent or pending offers, and 1,166 are new listings. There were 685 units sold in February at a total dollar value of $58.7 million. Of these sold units, 54.6% sold in under 30 days, 18.2% in under 60 days, 9.8% in under 90 days, 7.9% in under 120 days, and 9.5% in over 121 days. The total value of condos sold is 3.9% down on January 2010, but up 40.3% on February 2009. The average price of units sold is 7.7% down on January 2010, and 9.5% down on February 2009.
The market for condos is picking up relative to single family homes, and the February statistics follow a trend, with the total dollar value for condo sales in January 2010 35.4% above those in January 2009.
